Ethereum Price Analysis: How High Could ETH Go After Breaking the EMA Band?

By Afe Funbi

Ethereum is back in that familiar zone where nothing looks explosive at first glance, but the chart is quietly doing important work in the background. 

The ETH price isn’t making headlines with huge candles, yet the structure underneath continues to tighten. Some signals are turning constructive, while others are still holding price down, and that tension is exactly why this phase matters so much for any serious ETH price prediction.

Merlijn The Trader captured the situation clearly. Ethereum is still defending its main support area, momentum indicators are starting to improve, but the market remains capped by a heavy moving average zone. Until ETH clears that ceiling, upside acceleration stays limited. In many ways, that one sentence sums up where Ethereum stands right now.

The ETH support zone that’s holding everything together

On the 2-day chart shared by Merlijn, the ETH price continues to respect the $2,700–$2,800 range. This area has already proven itself multiple times, acting as a base during pullbacks and stopping deeper sell-offs from developing. Once again, it’s doing the same job.

As long as Ethereum stays above this zone, the current move still looks like a consolidation rather than the start of a larger breakdown. That distinction matters. Markets that break structure usually do it quickly. Markets that hold key levels tend to spend time building energy instead.

ETHEREUM IS HOLDING THE $2.7K-$2.8K SUPPORT ZONE.

Momentum is quietly turning:
– Bullish MACD crossover
– Selling pressure fading

But structure is still capped.

ETH needs a clean break above the EMA band
to unlock real trend acceleration. pic.twitter.com/iAMVQfTOTF

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) January 12, 2026

Momentum indicators are also starting to reflect that shift. The MACD on the chart has printed a bullish crossover, which often appears when selling pressure fades and buyers slowly regain control. It doesn’t mean price immediately rallies, but it does indicate that downside momentum is weakening.

From an ETH price prediction standpoint, this support zone is the foundation. If it holds, the bullish case stays alive. If it fails, the entire outlook has to be reassessed.

Ethereum on-chain data is quietly improving

One of the more interesting parts of this setup comes from on-chain data from Glassnode, which looks healthier than the price action alone might indicate.

Ethereum’s market cap has remained relatively stable in the high-$300 billion range. That stability supports the idea that this phase is more about consolidation than distribution. 

At the same time, active addresses have shown a noticeable increase in recent readings, and transaction counts have also moved higher.

That combination often signals renewed network activity and engagement, even if price hasn’t reacted yet. Historically, improvements in usage tend to show up before sustained price trends develop.

The price is compressing, but participation underneath is picking up, which strengthens the case that Ethereum is building something rather than breaking down.

Why the EMA band is still blocking a breakout

While support is doing its job, Ethereum still has a problem overhead. The ETH price remains trapped below a dense band of moving averages that continues to act as resistance. On the chart, this zone is clearly marked as the area ETH needs to reclaim before any meaningful trend acceleration can begin.

This type of structure often frustrates traders. Price can drift sideways under this band for longer than expected, making Ethereum look sluggish even as momentum slowly improves underneath. The breakout usually only becomes obvious after it happens, which is why patience becomes critical in phases like this.

Right now, the short-term ETH price prediction hinges on one thing: holding support is encouraging, but reclaiming that EMA band is what truly changes the trend narrative.

What the ETH lower timeframes are showing

Taking a closer look at the smaller timeframes provides more perspective. At the moment, the ETH/USD pair is seen around the lower part of the $3,100s, and on the 4-hour chart, it is clear that the level to watch is the 200-period moving average at around $3,040.

4-hour ETH price chart analysis.

Above that, the $3,230–$3,400 region keeps showing up as a resistance zone. Ethereum has struggled to push cleanly through it, and each attempt so far has stalled. If price can break above this band and hold, the structure starts to open up in a much more bullish way.

On the daily chart, the story is similar. The ETH price remains in a rising structure but is still capped by a descending resistance line. That’s why the current phase feels more like base building than a breakout, even though momentum indicators are improving.

Daily ETH price chart analysis.

This is why most ETH price prediction discussions keep circling the same conclusion. Support looks solid, but resistance still has to be cleared.

According to CoinCodex’s 3-month ETH price prediction, Ethereum could trade near $ 5,664.63. That figure provides a useful reference for potential upside, but the market still has to work through nearby technical levels before anything like that becomes realistic.

In the short term, the key question is whether the ETH price can continue holding the $3,000–$3,100 range. If it does, attention naturally shifts toward the $3,600–$3,800 zone. That area previously acted as resistance, and reclaiming it would mark a clear improvement in momentum.

So even with a bullish medium-term ETH price prediction on the table, the chart still demands confirmation step by step. Nothing gets skipped.

What’s next for ETH?

If the ETH price is able to hold above $3,000–$3,100 and then break out above the resistance level of $3,600–$3,800, then $4,000 comes back into focus soon after.

From this point, the market would then begin to focus on overcoming levels of resistance in the mid-$4,000s, where the Ethereum market had struggled previously. That’s the constructive path forward. Hold support, reclaim the moving averages, break resistance, and allow momentum to build over time.

The downside scenario is equally clear. If Ethereum loses the $2,700–$2,800 support zone, the structure weakens and the market likely enters a deeper corrective phase. 

That wouldn’t necessarily invalidate a longer-term ETH price prediction, but it would delay it and force Ethereum to rebuild from lower levels.

Right now, Ethereum sits at an inflection point. The ETH price is behaving like a market preparing for a larger move, but confirmation hasn’t arrived yet. 

Momentum is improving, on-chain activity is picking up, and support continues to hold. The only missing piece is a clean break through resistance.

Source:: Ethereum Price Analysis: How High Could ETH Go After Breaking the EMA Band?