Elliott Wave counts are interpretations, not confirmed outcomes, so the support levels matter. A break below $1.3265 would weaken that bullish count and bring $1.2930, $1.2124, and $1.1062 into focus.
The $1.49 level matters The 1-hour chart gives us a closer look at the current correction. XRP is around $1.4945, almost directly above the $1.49035 38.2% Fibonacci level. If this area holds, buyers could attempt another move toward $1.60. Above $1.60, the chart points to $1.70, $1.80, $1.90 and $2.00.
If XRP loses $1.49035, the next Fibonacci levels are $1.4405 and $1.3923. The bottom of the micro-support zone is $1.3265. So, for the XRP price, the immediate battle is fairly simple: hold around $1.49 and reclaim $1.60, or lose support and open the door to a deeper correction.
The on-chain numbers provide another useful piece of the puzzle. Active addresses are around 37,000, up from roughly 28,000. The supplied data shows the metric moving between 28,000 and 46,000, with an earlier spike toward 45,000.
Transfers are also recovering. The latest figure is around 470,000, compared with a low near 370,000 and a range that extends toward 500,000. The interesting part is that both metrics have recovered as the XRP price has remained around the $1.49 area.
That means network activity is improving without a comparable move in price. It would be too early to call this proof of accumulation, but continued growth in active addresses and transfers would provide stronger evidence that XRPL usage is recovering.
The Brazil development gives the network another measurable use case. CSD BR and Ripple said the project will use XRPL to record and audit financial assets, starting with BTG Pactual investment fund shares. CSD BR will continue to serve as the official source for registration, deposit and settlement.
The proposed $15 billion figure also needs some context. It represents the value of financial assets that could be digitally represented on XRPL, not $15 billion entering the XRP market. That distinction is important because greater XRPL adoption does not automatically translate into the same amount of demand for the XRP token.
Still, the development gives the XRP Ledger a direct connection to Brazil’s financial infrastructure, and that is happening at the same time the XRP price is recovering above key technical levels.
Flare founder Hugo Philion questioned the weak XRP price reaction to the announcement, pointing out that the market response did not appear to match the scale of the infrastructure development.
The bullish setup starts with XRP holding the $1.49-$1.46 region and breaking above $1.6461. If that happens, $1.7538 becomes the next major level, followed by $1.8191 and $2.0332. More Crypto Online’s Elliott Wave analysis puts $1.93 and $2.25 higher up the potential path if the correction has ended and another impulsive wave develops.
The bearish setup starts below $1.4647, the 4-hour 100-period SMA. A break there could send XRP toward $1.2285, then $1.0801 and $0.9130. CoinCodex’s 1-month XRP price forecast puts the price at $1.66, so analysts expect it to trade slightly above current levels over the coming weeks.
For now, XRP is above both 100-period moving averages. RSI is bullish but not overbought, and XRPL activity has recovered from its recent lows. The $1.49 support and $1.6461 resistance are the two levels that matter most for the next move.
Source:: XRP Price Tests Key Levels as Brazil Adoption Adds a New Catalyst
