- Bitcoin’s network activity and on-chain demand have dropped significantly since December 2024, despite the price holding above $94,000.
- U.S. traders are showing persistent selling pressure, as indicated by a negative Coinbase Premium Gap.
- Whale accumulation has nearly vanished, with large holder netflows plummeting by almost 100% over the past 90 days.
- Exchange outflows continue, but the lack of institutional buying casts doubt on the strength of this trend.
- Over 82% of Bitcoin holders are in profit, increasing the risk of profit-taking if the market turns.
- Technical indicators show Bitcoin struggling to break resistance at $97,900, with bearish signals emerging.
- The market’s next move hinges on renewed large-scale buying and fresh capital inflows.
Network Activity and On-Chain Demand: A Fading Pulse
Since the close of 2024, Bitcoin’s once-vibrant network activity has entered a period of marked decline. Both transaction volumes and the number of active addresses have dropped off, signaling a cooling of on-chain engagement. This contraction is particularly notable given Bitcoin’s ability to maintain a price above $94,000, a level that would typically attract more network participation.
Adding to the caution, the Coinbase Premium Gap—a measure of the price difference between Coinbase and global exchanges—currently sits at -5.07. This negative reading points to ongoing selling pressure from U.S.-based traders, suggesting that domestic sentiment remains cautious or outright bearish. Despite the relatively stable price, these on-chain signals hint at a market running on inertia rather than fresh demand.
Whale Activity: The Missing Catalyst
A closer look at large holder behavior reveals a dramatic shift. Over the past 90 days, netflows from major Bitcoin holders have collapsed by an astonishing -99.86%. This near-total retreat in whale accumulation is striking, especially as Bitcoin’s price has managed to stay above $94,000. Historically, surges in whale buying have been the fuel for major rallies, so their absence now is a red flag for bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to flow out of exchanges, with net outflows totaling -7,160 BTC—a 15.53% decrease. Ordinarily, such outflows would be interpreted as a sign of accumulation and reduced selling pressure. However, without the backing of institutional or large-scale buyers, this trend appears hollow. Retail investors and smaller holders may be moving coins off exchanges, but without whales stepping in, the foundation for a sustained rally looks shaky.
Profitability and the Temptation to Sell
The majority of Bitcoin holders—over 82%—are currently “in the money,” meaning they are sitting on unrealized gains. While this is a sign of a healthy market, it also sets the stage for potential profit-taking, especially if uncertainty grows. When most participants are in profit, the incentive to accumulate more diminishes, and the risk of a wave of selling increases if prices start to slip.
Supporting this, the Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) has jumped by 21.88%, and Supply-Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) has risen by 13.19%. These metrics indicate that long-held coins are being spent, often a precursor to profit-taking by seasoned investors. Historically, spikes in these indicators have coincided with local market tops or periods of sideways price action, suggesting that the current environment is ripe for a pause or pullback.
Technical Outlook: Resistance and Uncertainty
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is facing stiff resistance at the $97,900 level. The price has repeatedly failed to break through this barrier, with each attempt met by selling pressure. The Parabolic SAR indicator continues to print dots above the price candles, signaling that bearish momentum remains in play. At the same time, the MACD is flattening, hinting at waning momentum and the possibility of a bearish crossover.
This confluence of technical signals paints a picture of indecision. Price compression near resistance often precedes a significant move, but with on-chain and whale activity both subdued, the odds currently tilt toward a downside break. Unless new buyers step in with conviction, Bitcoin may struggle to sustain its current levels and could be vulnerable to a deeper correction.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent price resilience masks a more fragile underlying reality. Network activity is down, whale accumulation has all but disappeared, and most holders are sitting on substantial profits—conditions that often precede a period of consolidation or correction. While exchange outflows persist, the lack of institutional support makes this trend less convincing as a bullish signal. Technical resistance at $97,900 remains formidable, and without a surge of fresh capital or renewed large-holder interest, Bitcoin’s next move may be downward. The market’s fate now hinges on whether new buyers are willing to step in and reignite momentum, or if profit-taking and weak demand will tip the balance toward a deeper retracement.