Bitcoin Could Outperform Gold If ETF Hedging Declines, JPMorgan Says

By Michael Adeleke

JPMorgan analysts said Bitcoin could end up doing better than gold if the hedging pressure on BTC ETFs starts to fade. In a research note led by analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bank said that the crypto’s more cautious backdrop compared to gold could work in its favor if that hedging demand eases.

Year-to-date performance comparison between Bitcoin and gold

JPMorgan highlights “debasement trade” ratio

The debasement trade, a pattern where investors buy Bitcoin and gold as a hedge against currency weakness, picked up steam after the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, driving inflows into the two assets. However, that momentum has stalled, according to JPMorgan. 

Since then, bond yields have climbed, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25%, and the Senate failed to pass the CLARITY Act. The bank said these factors weighed on the overall trade sector over the past week.

For context, gold has seen more ETF buying than Bitcoin recently. Gold ETFs have recovered all of their outflows for the year, while Bitcoin ETFs have only taken back around half of theirs. 

Cumulative flows into gold and Bitcoin ETFs. Source: JPMorgan

JPMorgan also noted that demand for BTC ETFs has been cooling in the past couple of days, which the bank said could leave more room for a rebound if market conditions change.

Short interest shows the gap between Bitcoin and gold ETFs

Both markets have shown heavy institutional activity through futures contracts, according to JPMorgan. This suggests investors haven’t exactly stepped away from either trade. 

The difference in the assets, though, shows up in ETF short interest, the bank said. Short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT, is near one of its highest points of the year. Short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, GLD, on the other hand, is below its historical average.

JPMorgan’s analysts said this gap is evidence of a skeptical outlook on Bitcoin from investors at the moment. 

“This contrast suggests that Bitcoin still faces an overall more sceptical positioning backdrop than gold, perhaps due to more elevated hedging demand, despite the recent inflows and build up of futures positioning,” the analysts wrote.

Short interest for top gold and Bitcoin ETFs. Source: JPMorgan

Options market data also tells a similar story. JPMorgan noted that IBIT has a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD, which means there is elevated hedging activity around the crypto relative to gold.

“While we recognize that other factors might also affect the bitcoin and gold trajectories going forward, from a positioning point of view, the more elevated short interest in the IBIT vs. GLD ETF could create more support for bitcoin vs gold from here if hedging demand is reduced,” the analysts concluded.

Bloomberg Analyst sees BTC tripling gold in assets

JPMorgan’s note came alongside comments from Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. He predicted that Bitcoin ETFs will eventually hold three times as many assets as gold ETFs. 

Yes. Here’s why: 1) btc leans younger, gold older 2) it will get used more by big money as it matures and settles down w both vol and corr 3) way more enthusiasm and sales firepower. no one is out there talking about gold ETFs but you got dozens of wholesalers (fluent in both… https://t.co/bHBBuNkXLf

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) September 17, 2026

Balchunas linked his prediction to generational wealth transfer and the growing stability seen with institutions as Bitcoin’s price volatility declines.

“As the younger investors get more money and grow up with Bitcoin as their store of value, I do believe that Bitcoin ETFs will triple gold in assets,” Balchunas said.

He said large institutional investors still favor gold but only because of Bitcoin’s higher volatility and its history of trading in tandem with the Nasdaq 100 index. However, he opined that as BTC’s volatility and its parallels to stocks decline, a point could come where institutions see the coin as a dependable store of value.

“Bitcoin is like gold as a teenager,” Balchunas said. “Gold is 5,000 years old. Bitcoin is 17 years old.”

Source:: Bitcoin Could Outperform Gold If ETF Hedging Declines, JPMorgan Says