Key highlights:
- Glassnode says realized losses among Bitcoin holders who bought one to two years ago are showing an early bear-market bottom signal
- Long-term holders are increasingly selling into relief rallies, locking in losses as BTC approaches key resistance levels
- Bitcoin’s next major battleground remains around $69,000, where several on-chain cost basis levels converge
Bitcoin’s prolonged correction may be entering its final stages, according to new on-chain research from Glassnode, which suggests that one of the most reliable historical bear-market indicators is beginning to flash early signs of exhaustion.
The latest analysis focuses on investors who purchased instead of waiting for a full market recovery.
This behavior is common during late-stage bear markets, where relief rallies temporarily provide liquidity for underwater holders looking to exit.
Although such selling can delay an immediate breakout, analysts generally view capitulation as a necessary step before a sustainable recovery can begin.
Bitcoin’s next major price test sits near $69,000
Beyond realized losses, Glassnode believes Bitcoin faces another important hurdle.
The firm’s latest on-chain analysis identifies the $69,000 psychological level as one of the market’s most significant resistance levels because it aligns with the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders while also matching Bitcoin’s previous all-time high from the 2021 cycle.
Investors who have spent months holding untapped positions may choose to sell once their holdings return to breakeven, potentially creating heavy supply around that level.
A decisive move above $69,000 would likely indicate that buyers have absorbed this overhead selling pressure, strengthening the case for a broader recovery.
However, failure to reclaim the level could extend Bitcoin’s consolidation phase as the market continues searching for a durable bottom.
Source:: Glassnode Analyst Identifies Early Bitcoin Bottom Signal as Holder Capitulation Cools