Key highlights:
- The ETH price is testing the $2,550 resistance level after failing to hold above $2,600.
- Ethereum exchange supply has fallen to 6.06 million, down roughly 73% since June 2020.
- CoinCodex expects the ETH price to reach $2,456.67 over the next month.
Ethereum is at a tricky spot right now with the price climbing from about $1,557 up to $2,615, but that rally has lost steam after failing to hold above $2,600. Ted Pillows pointed out that the ETH price broke above $2,600 before giving the move back. So the breakout didn’t stick, at least not yet.
His view is that the upside could remain limited until the Ethereum price gets back above $2,550 on the weekly timeframe. There is also an interesting development on the supply side. Santiment data shows that only about 6.06 million ETH are now held on exchanges, down roughly 73% from the June 2020 peak.
Ethereum price needs to break $2,550
We analyzed the Ethereum chart shared by Ted and the recovery still has some support underneath it. The ETH price is trading around $2,473, almost exactly at the 50-day SMA of $2,469.86. The 50-day EMA is lower at $2,384.73. Holding above both keeps this recovery intact.
$ETH broke above the $2,600 again before reversing all the gains.
Until Ethereum reclaims the $2,550 level on the weekly timeframe, the upside will be capped. pic.twitter.com/asmN3rfQnJ
— Ted (@TedPillows) September 15, 2026
The first big hurdle is $2,546.78. Ethereum already pushed through $2,600, but buyers couldn’t hold it there. Until ETH closes above $2,546.78–$2,550 on the weekly timeframe, the recovery stays vulnerable to another rejection.
If buyers finally clear that zone, $2,800.47 becomes the next level to watch. A break above $2,800 could open the way toward $3,300, with $3,900 as the bigger resistance on the chart. The downside is easier to map out too. A move below the $2,384.73 EMA would weaken the setup and put $2,175 in view. Below that, Ethereum could fall toward $1,965 and then $1,713.
ETH exchange supply falls to 6.06 million
Santiment data shows exchange-held ETH has dropped to about 6.06 million coins. That’s roughly 3.56% of Ethereum’s total supply. Compare that to June 2020, when exchanges held around 23.85 million ETH, about 28.48% of the supply. The current number is roughly 73% lower than that peak.
🔒 Ethereum’s exchange supply keeps disappearing. This chart shows 6.06M ethereum:native on exchanges now, down from 22.9M at the network’s June 2020 peak.
📉 That’s a 73% drop in easily sellable exchange supply. Less ETH on exchanges means fewer coins sitting near order books,… pic.twitter.com/KGtbU3OVW2
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) September 14, 2026
There is a simple reason this matters. ETH that has moved into staking, ETFs, treasury holdings, DeFi or private custody is less readily available for people looking to sell on exchanges.
That doesn’t automatically mean ETH has to go higher. Crypto can still fall if Bitcoin weakens or risk appetite dries up. But if demand for ETH picks up while exchange balances are this low, buyers could find fewer coins available to purchase. That’s when things can move fast.
Could low exchange supply help ETH break higher?
Ethereum does not need a huge increase in demand for low exchange balances to matter. If fewer ETH are available near exchange order books, even a moderate increase in buying can have a bigger effect on price.
For now, $2,550 is the immediate test. A weekly close above $2,546.78 would give buyers a cleaner path toward $2,800.47. If that level falls too, the next targets are $3,300 and eventually $3,900. CoinCodex’s 1-month ETH price prediction places the price at $2,456.67, implying that analysts expect Ethereum to trade slightly lower in the weeks ahead.
Source:: Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Faces $2,550 Test as Exchange Supply Hits 11-Year Low