Key highlights:
- Bernstein has cut its price target for Circle by $50, citing an uncertain revenue outlook
- The firm downplayed speculation that OpenUSD will affect Circle’s long-term share price
- CRCL is down by over 40% from its all-time high
Global equity research firm Bernstein has slashed its end-of-year price target for CRCL stock to $140. In its submission, the firm downplayed the threat posed by the OpenUSD to Circle, but concerns remain over the long-term profitability of the USDC issuer.
Bernstein revises price forecast for Circle stock
In a staff note to clients, Bernstein lowered its price target on CRCL from $190, tipping the stock to close the year at $140. Despite the cuts and wave of bearish conditions, Bernstein analysts are still branding the Circle stock with an “Outperform” rating, projecting a stellar H2 for the stablecoin issuer.
At the moment, CRCL is trading at $61.36, with the revised forecast representing a 129% increase by the end of the year. For context, CRCL has lost over 25% of its market value since the start of 2026, while shedding 46% from its all-time high.
Several reasons forced Bernstein to reduce its price forecast for CRCL. Right off the bat, the numbers from Q2 2026 fell flat with $73 billion in USDC supply compared to the $77 billion at the end of Q1.
Apart from faltering numbers, Bernstein analysts are forecasting falling revenues for Circle, cutting reserve income estimates for 2026 through 2028. The new projection lowers Circle’s 20226 adjusted EBITDA forecast by 12% to $602 million while revising the EPS estimate to $0.92 from $1.98.
In mid-July, JPMorgan noted that a deal between Coinbase and Hyperliquid will adversely affect USDC’s tokenomics. The agreement makes Circle’s USDC the primary quote and collateral asset on the Hyperliquid perpetual exchange, with Coinbase acting as treasury deployer. Under the agreement, Coinbase and Circle will share 90% of the reserve income earned on USDC on Hyperliquid.
OpenUSD threat to Circle will fade
Meanwhile, Bernstein downplayed the threat of OpenUSD to Circle, noting that the USDC issuer will weather the storm. OpenUSD’s announcement rocked Circle, with CRCL losing over 5% on the same day as investors questioned its long-term sustainability.
Right off the bat, Bernstein noted that Circle has signed a raft of memorandums of understanding (MOUs) with several entities in the OpenUSD alliance. Circle has inked deals with Kakao, Samsung, and BNY, with several entities pledging to remain multi-coin and multi-chain rather than picking sides.
Payment giant Visa, one of the entities in the OpenUSD consortium, noted that rather than pick sides, it will help clients connect to the stablecoin ecosystem. However, Mizuho forecasted that CRCL stock will underperform, pointing to the sheer size of consortium partners.
Meanwhile, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire remains unfazed by the emerging threat, tipping USDC for long-term dominance. In a previous statement, Allaire pointed to Circle’s first-mover advantage and regulatory compliance in multiple jurisdictions as tailwinds in its favor.
Recently, Circle secured an OCC charter to become a national trust bank. Meanwhile, the stablecoin issuer has purchased IBM’s blockchain patent holdings to become the largest Web3 patent holder in the US.
Source:: Bernstein Cuts Circle Stock Price Target to $140, but Downplays OpenUSD Threat