U.S. Sanctions Linked to Over 500,000 Deaths a Year, New Study Find

By Emir Abyazov

International sanctions are linked to a significant rise in mortality in targeted countries, according to new research by economists from the University of Denver and the Center for Economic Policy. A study published in The Lancet Global Health is the first to establish a causal relationship between sanctions and increased death rates across different age groups.

The researchers – Francisco Rodríguez, Silvio Rendón, and Mark Weisbrot – analyzed data from 152 countries covering the period from 1971 to 2021. To isolate causality, they applied multiple advanced methods for observational data, including entropy balancing, Granger causality tests, event-study analysis, and instrumental variables.

Why unilateral sanctions have the deadliest impact

The findings show that unilateral economic sanctions, particularly those imposed by the United States, are associated with the largest increases in mortality. In contrast, sanctions imposed by the United Nations did not produce statistically significant effects on death rates.

The authors attribute this difference to governance and oversight. UN sanctions involve multilateral decision-making and greater public scrutiny, while unilateral measures are often designed to exert maximum economic pressure on target states.

Mortality effects varied sharply by age. Death rates increased by 8.4% among children under five and by 2.4% among people aged 60-80. Overall, children and the elderly were disproportionately affected, accounting for the majority of sanction-related deaths.

The impact also intensified over time. Infant mortality rose by 5.8% within the first three years of sanctions, increased to 8.1% after four to six years, and reached 10% after seven years or more.

More than half a million deaths each year

The study estimates that unilateral sanctions are associated with approximately 564,000 deaths annually worldwide. This figure rivals the global mortality burden of armed conflict and far exceeds the average yearly number of combat fatalities.

Children under five accounted for 51% of all sanction-related deaths between 1970 and 2021. In total, 77% of deaths occurred among people aged 0–15 and 60–80, groups typically outside the workforce and least able to absorb economic shocks.

How sanctions damage public health systems

Sanctions affect health outcomes through multiple channels. Reduced government revenue leads to underfunded healthcare systems, while restrictions on foreign exchange limit access to medicines, medical equipment, food, and clean energy.

Humanitarian organizations also face barriers, both legal and logistical, that delay or restrict aid delivery. The effects are often indirect but cumulative, worsening living conditions over time.

U.S. and European sanctions tend to amplify these effects due to the global dominance of the dollar and euro in trade and banking, as well as the extraterritorial reach of U.S. enforcement mechanisms.

Sanctions are becoming more common

The use of economic sanctions has expanded rapidly in recent decades. Between 2010 and 2022, one in four countries faced sanctions from the U.S., EU, or UN, compared with fewer than one in ten during the 1960s.

The share of the global economy affected by unilateral sanctions rose from 5.4% in the 1960s to nearly 25% in the past decade. While often justified by goals such as promoting human rights or ending conflicts, the study suggests these measures carry substantial humanitarian costs.

Ethical questions and policy implications

The findings raise difficult ethical questions for governments that rely heavily on sanctions as a foreign-policy tool. From a human-rights perspective, evidence of widespread loss of life challenges the moral justification for such measures. From a consequentialist view, these costs must be weighed against the effectiveness of sanctions in achieving political goals.

The study also contributes to debates on sanctions reform. One key takeaway is that design matters: while unilateral and economic sanctions are linked to increased mortality, UN sanctions are not.

The authors note that all observational studies face limitations. While their instruments are plausibly exogenous and robust across specifications, unobserved factors and evolving sanction practices could influence outcomes.

Still, the core result remains consistent across methods and time periods. As Woodrow Wilson once warned, sanctions may be “something more terrifying than war.” Modern data now suggests that warning deserves renewed attention.

Source:: U.S. Sanctions Linked to Over 500,000 Deaths a Year, New Study Find