Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse isn’t just optimistic—he’s precise. In a recent Fox Business interview, Garlinghouse placed the odds at 90% that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, widely known as the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633), will become law by April 2026. This isn’t mere speculation from an industry advocate; it’s a calibrated forecast from a leader who has navigated the turbulent waters of U.S. crypto regulation for over a decade. With the bill already clearing the House in 2025 by a decisive 294–134 bipartisan margin, Garlinghouse sees a long-standing legislative logjam finally breaking, accelerated by a White House-imposed March 1 deadline to resolve contentious stablecoin provisions.
At its core, the CLARITY Act seeks to answer the question that has haunted the U.S. digital asset ecosystem for years: which regulator oversees what? By formally dividing jurisdiction between the SEC and the CFTC, the legislation would bring long-sought clarity to asset classification, distinguishing securities from commodities in a manner that reflects technological reality rather than regulatory ambiguity. Crucially, it introduces a “secondary market” framework, allowing tokens that begin as securities to evolve into commodities once they achieve sufficient decentralization—a provision with profound implications for assets like XRP, which have won legal battles yet remain in statutory limbo. For institutional players sitting on the sidelines, this framework represents the final box to check before deploying capital at scale, potentially unlocking billions in U.S.-based institutional flows.
Yet the path to April is not without friction. The central dispute revolves around stablecoin yield: whether platforms can offer returns on reserve-backed stablecoins without triggering banking regulations. Traditional financial institutions fear deposit flight, while crypto innovators warn that overly restrictive rules will simply push activity offshore. This tension has kept the bill stalled in Senate committees despite broad House support. Notably, decentralized prediction markets currently price the probability of market structure legislation passing by year-end in the high 70s—substantially lower than Garlinghouse’s April-specific confidence. This gap underscores a critical reality: while momentum is undeniable, the convergence of political will, technical compromise, and administrative urgency remains a delicate balancing act.
What should observers watch? First, any movement on the stablecoin yield compromise before the March 1 White House deadline. Second, whether Senate leadership prioritizes floor consideration over committee gridlock. Third, signs of genuine SEC–CFTC coordination under initiatives like “Project Crypto,” which could signal a broader shift toward pragmatic, innovation-friendly oversight. If these pieces align, the CLARITY Act could deliver the clearest, most coherent federal crypto framework the United States has ever seen—reducing regulatory overhang, empowering compliant innovation, and positioning American markets to lead the next phase of digital finance. Garlinghouse’s 90% forecast may be aggressive, but it reflects a tangible inflection point: the moment when crypto regulation shifts from enforcement-by-litigation to architecture-by-legislation.
Source:: Ripple CEO’s Bold Prediction: Why April Could Redefine America’s Crypto Future