Key highlights:
- Anthony Pompliano argues that Bitcoin’s lack of explosive gains in 2025 may reduce the likelihood of a severe market crash in early 2026.
- While Bitcoin has avoided the sharp drawdowns seen in past cycles, analysts remain divided on whether stability signals strength or risk.
- Reduced volatility has gone largely unnoticed by investors, despite its potential importance for Bitcoin’s next market phase.
Bitcoin’s relatively subdued price action in 2025 may be playing a larger role in shaping the market’s future than many investors realize. According to prominent crypto investor Anthony Pompliano, the absence of dramatic gains could help shield Bitcoin from a severe downturn in early 2026.
Speaking in a CNBC interview, Pompliano said that while Bitcoin remains volatile by nature, the lack of an extreme rally may reduce the probability of a historically large drawdown.
Pompliano noted that many investors have focused on Bitcoin’s failure to reach ambitious targets such as $250,000 in 2025, while overlooking its broader performance. Over the past two and three years, Bitcoin has delivered gains of roughly 100% and nearly 300%, respectively.
He described Bitcoin as a dominant force in global financial markets, arguing that expectations of constant explosive growth often distort investor perception.
According to Pompliano, Bitcoin’s declining volatility has attracted far less attention than its recent price weakness. Historically, major Bitcoin bull runs have often been followed by sharp drawdowns of 70% to 80%. This time, however, the expected surge never materialized, and neither did the collapse.
Current market conditions and analyst expectations
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $87,400, down about 7% since the start of the year, according to data from CoinCodex.
Some market participants remain highly optimistic. Figures such as BitMine chairman Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes have suggested that Bitcoin could still reach $250,000 during the current cycle.
Not all analysts share that confidence. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned that Bitcoin could fall toward $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro research at Fidelity, has described 2026 as a potential “rest year,” with prices possibly declining to around $65,000.
Interpreting reduced volatility
From a data-driven perspective, periods of declining volatility have often preceded major structural changes in traditional financial markets. In some historical cases, low volatility has been followed by sharp moves rather than gradual transitions.
Macroeconomic conditions also add complexity. Central bank policies and shifting liquidity dynamics may be suppressing volatility temporarily rather than signaling long-term stability. If external conditions change, the current calm could give way to renewed turbulence.
Whether Bitcoin’s quieter cycle represents maturation or merely a pause remains uncertain. What is clear is that the absence of extreme price swings in 2025 is already reshaping expectations for what comes next.
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Source:: Pompliano: Bitcoin’s Quiet Year May Be Its Best Defense Against a 2026 Crash