Key highlights:
- Trump’s surprise pardon of CZ triggers a betting frenzy
- Polymarket odds for SBF surge as millions pour in
- Experts warn his case is far more serious than CZ’s
Odds for Sam Bankman-Fried to be pardoned rose to 9% on forecasting platform Polymarket after U.S. President Donald Trump pardoned former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao.
Sam Bankman-Freed? pic.twitter.com/caNQ5udKBz
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 23, 2025
Traders on Polymarket doubled the former FTX CEO’s chances of being pardoned, with the probability jumping from 5.6% to 9% in just 12 hours. The question “Who will Trump pardon in 2025?” has attracted over $6.5 million in bets, including $302,090 on convicted cryptocurrency fraudster Bankman-Fried.
Source: Polymarket
Another bet on whether Bankman-Fried would be “released from prison in 2025” jumped from 4.3% to 13.4% before dipping back to 9%.
The former head of FTX has filed an appeal to reduce his 25-year sentence, but no major changes are expected before the end of the year. That leaves a Trump pardon as the only realistic path to his early release.
Experts question whether the crimes are comparable
Zhao’s pardon has sparked debate about whether Bankman-Fried deserves similar treatment. Many believe he does not.
Experts compared the severity of the crimes: Zhao violated U.S. anti-money-laundering rules by allowing illicit funds to flow through Binance, while Bankman-Fried was convicted of fraud and conspiracy for misappropriating billions in client funds.
Zhao received four months in prison, while Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years.
Cryptocurrency lawyer Jake Chervinsky said he would be “truly shocked” if the Trump administration pardoned Bankman-Fried, noting that the former FTX executive was a “mega-donor of the Democratic Party” before the exchange collapsed in November 2022.
Scale of violations draws a sharp contrast
Sasha Hodder, founder of Hodder Law, emphasized that Zhao’s actions were not comparable to those of Bankman-Fried or former Terraform Labs head Do Kwon.
Commenting on the pardon, Trump said he was told that Zhao’s actions “weren’t even a crime” and that he was “being persecuted by the Biden administration.” Zhao is a key backer of the Trump family’s cryptocurrency platform, World Liberty Financial.
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Source:: Pardon Chances for Ex-FTX CEO Soar to 12% After CZ’s Victory