Key highlights:
- Altcoin rally stalled despite Bitcoin dominance falling by 6% in 30 days.
- Bitfinex says ETF approvals will drive investor appetite for risk.
- The market still shows weak demand compared to past bull runs.
While many traders rely on historical trends and Bitcoin dominance metrics to predict the next altseason, Bitfinex analysts are challenging that narrative. They argue that a significant rally in altcoins is unlikely until new crypto ETFs launch — particularly those offering exposure to riskier, less-established digital assets.
Bitcoin dominance drops, but no altcoin rally yet
Bitcoin’s dominance has fallen by 6% over the last 30 days, typically a signal that altcoins are ready to outperform. Yet, at the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance still sits at 57.41%, and altcoin momentum remains muted.
Source: Coincodex
Bitfinex analysts wrote in a recent report that they don’t expect “a rising tide to lift all boats” until later this year. They believe renewed capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs will first need to restore market momentum, followed by the approval of new investment vehicles tailored to altcoins.
“Sustainable demand” needed for broader repricing
“These instruments will create sustainable, price-independent demand,” Bitfinex experts noted, referring to upcoming ETFs. “They will lay the foundation for a broader revaluation of the entire digital asset complex.”
Currently, market conditions reflect a “softer appetite for risk,” according to the report.
Despite positive capital inflows into the crypto space, investor behavior remains cautious — especially when compared to previous bull runs that saw aggressive accumulation and record highs.
At press time, the Altcoin Season Index stood at 53 out of 100, suggesting that altseason has not yet arrived.
Source: Coinglass
ETF speculation builds as SEC delays decisions
Crypto investors and analysts alike are closely watching the ETF landscape. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now been trading for over 19 months since their January 2024 debut. Spot Ethereum ETFs followed in July 2024 and have been trading for 13 months.
However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently delayed approval decisions on several highly anticipated crypto ETF applications, including:
- The Truth Social Bitcoin-Ethereum ETF
- Solana ETFs from 21Shares and Bitwise
- 21Shares Core XRP Trust
Meanwhile, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said on June 7 that there’s a “really good chance” a memecoin ETF could eventually enter the market. He predicted that a series of active crypto ETFs would arrive first, and that a memecoin ETF could realistically launch by 2026.
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Source:: No Altseason Yet? Bitfinex Says Investors Waiting on ETF Green Light