Gold Price Forecast: Central Bank Buying Points to $8,000 Scenario

By Patrick Timely

Gold is trading near $5,000, giving the metal a market capitalization of roughly $17.85 trillion, after a volatile pullback that briefly pushed prices below recent highs. Despite the short-term correction, gold remains firmly elevated on a historical basis, supported by sustained institutional demand and a broader shift in how reserves are managed globally.

The recent move lower has done little to disrupt the underlying narrative. Instead, price action reflects consolidation following a sharp rally, with both banks and model-based forecasts continuing to outline higher long-term scenarios, albeit with significant volatility along the way.

Gold price pulls back after recent highs. Source: CoinCodex

Central bank demand remains a dominant force

Structural demand from central banks continues to anchor gold’s longer-term outlook. According to data cited by JPMorgan, official-sector purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes in 2024, extending a buying streak that has now lasted more than a decade. The bank characterizes this demand as strategic rather than cyclical, driven by a preference for reserve assets that are politically neutral, free from counterparty risk, and less exposed to sanctions or currency debasement.

JUST IN: 🇨🇳 Peter Schiff says China is ‘too smart’ to care about Bitcoin.

They’re “buying gold.” pic.twitter.com/igU3luztIe

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) February 4, 2026

Commentary around China’s reserve strategy has reinforced this view. Market observers, including Peter Schiff, have pointed to continued Chinese accumulation of gold as part of a broader effort to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets. While such statements are not forecasts, they align with the trend JPMorgan identifies as a key pillar of long-term price support.

JPMorgan frames $8,000 gold as a structural re-rating

JPMorgan’s $8,000 gold projection is not framed as a crisis-driven outcome, but as the result of gradual and permanent portfolio rebalancing. The bank argues that if global investors raise gold allocations from roughly 3% of portfolios to around 4.6%, the resulting demand would overwhelm available supply.

Because gold production responds slowly to price signals, JPMorgan contends that higher prices would be required to clear the market. In this framework, gold’s upside is tied less to short-term macro cycles and more to its re-emergence as a core monetary asset in an environment of fragmented trade, rising geopolitical risk, and declining confidence in fiat reserve dominance.

The bank has also noted that gold breaking above $5,000, a level it previously highlighted, fits within this longer-term thesis rather than marking an endpoint.

CoinCodex’s 6-month gold price prediction

CoinCodex’s gold price prediction points to a continuation of the broader uptrend, with price increases unfolding in uneven phases rather than a smooth advance. For February, the model places gold in a wide range, with downside scenarios near $4,656 and upside paths extending above $6,000.

As the year progresses, CoinCodex projects increasingly higher price zones. By April, the model shows average prices near $6,200, with upside scenarios reaching above $7,200. Momentum accelerates further into mid-2026, with July projections placing average prices close to $7,860 and potential highs approaching $9,237, underscoring the scale of volatility embedded in the forecast.

These projections remain scenario-based and highly sensitive to trend continuation, sentiment shifts, and macro stability. CoinCodex does not present these levels as expected outcomes, but as possible paths under supportive conditions.

Volatility remains the key risk

Despite constructive long-term signals, gold remains vulnerable to sharp corrections. The recent drop below $5,000 highlighted how quickly sentiment can shift as positioning unwinds or macro expectations change. Rising real yields, shifts in central bank signaling, or sudden improvements in risk appetite could all pressure prices in the near term.

That said, both institutional commentary and model-based forecasts suggest that pullbacks are currently being viewed as consolidations within a broader structural move, rather than as trend reversals.

Source:: Gold Price Forecast: Central Bank Buying Points to $8,000 Scenario