Gold Forecast: JPMorgan Sees Path to $6,000 as Greenland Tensions Push Prices to New Highs

By Patrick Timely

Gold has pushed deeper into price discovery after setting a new all-time high of $4,885 on Wednesday, extending a powerful rally fueled by geopolitical stress and rising demand for safe-haven assets. The move comes as tensions between the United States and Europe escalate over Greenland, reviving fears of a broader trade and diplomatic rupture.

With gold already up more than 60% over the past year and momentum carrying into early 2026, attention has shifted to how far prices can realistically extend if geopolitical risks remain elevated.

Greenland tensions drive safe-haven demand

The latest leg higher in gold followed renewed uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s push to assert control over Greenland. Trump’s comments ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, including threats of tariffs against multiple European countries, have unsettled markets and strained transatlantic relations.

Gold daily price chart. Source: TradingView / DailyForex

Investors reacted by rotating into defensive assets. Gold rose more than 2% on the day, while European equities sold off and volatility picked up across risk markets. Although broader financial conditions stabilized later in the session, demand for gold remained firm.

Safe-haven flows have been reinforced by concerns that the Greenland dispute could distract NATO allies from the war in Ukraine, adding another layer of geopolitical fragility at a time when global trade relations are already under pressure.

Gold’s rally supported by macro and central bank demand

Beyond geopolitics, gold continues to benefit from a favorable macro backdrop. Expectations of lower real interest rates, ongoing questions around US fiscal discipline, and diversification away from the dollar have all strengthened gold’s appeal.

Central banks remain a key pillar of demand. After three consecutive years of exceptionally strong purchases, buying is expected to remain elevated in 2026, even if the pace moderates slightly due to higher prices. Emerging-market central banks, in particular, continue to increase gold’s share within reserves as a hedge against currency risk.

Investor demand has also broadened. ETF inflows have picked up, and private wealth managers, asset managers, and hedge funds have increasingly treated gold as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term trade.

JPMorgan outlines a $6,000 upside scenario

JPMorgan Global Research remains among the more constructive voices on gold’s medium-term outlook. Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan, has argued that the forces driving gold’s repricing are not exhausted and that demand dynamics remain strong.

The bank expects gold prices to push toward $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, with an average price around $5,055 in the fourth quarter. Importantly, JPMorgan also outlines a scenario in which gold could reach $6,000 per ounce if diversification flows accelerate.

That upside case assumes a relatively modest shift in global capital allocation. JPMorgan estimates that if just 0.5% of foreign US asset holdings were diversified into gold, demand would be sufficient to drive prices toward the $6,000 level, given gold’s inelastic supply.

While not framed as a base case, the scenario highlights how sensitive gold prices remain to incremental changes in investor behavior during periods of geopolitical and monetary stress.

Technical picture: Momentum strong, conditions stretched

Gold price action over the past several weeks has been decisively bullish. Prices have posted a string of consecutive gains, breaking through prior resistance levels near $4,700 and $4,800 with little hesitation.

That said, momentum indicators suggest conditions are increasingly stretched. RSI readings have moved into overbought territory, raising the likelihood of short-term consolidation or pullbacks as traders take profits. Historically, such pauses have often occurred within broader uptrends rather than marking major reversals.

As long as gold holds above former resistance zones, dips are likely to attract renewed buying interest, particularly if geopolitical tensions remain unresolved.

CoinCodex gold price prediction

Gold 1-year price prediction. Source: CoinCodex

CoinCodex’s gold price prediction also points to continued upside through 2026, and while the path is linear, the sustained upside might not be realistic for such a long time frame. According to the forecast, gold could trade above $5,000 early in the year, with prices potentially extending toward the $6,000–$7,000 range as momentum builds.

Later in the year, CoinCodex projections extend even higher, reflecting scenarios in which geopolitical stress, central bank demand, and currency diversification persist for longer than expected. As with all algorithmic forecasts, these figures represent probabilistic outcomes rather than guaranteed targets.

The CoinCodex model aligns with the broader narrative that gold’s rally is being driven by structural forces rather than speculative excess, but it also implies heightened volatility as prices move further into uncharted territory.

Source:: Gold Forecast: JPMorgan Sees Path to $6,000 as Greenland Tensions Push Prices to New Highs