Gold Price Forecast: Gold Pulls Back, but Here’s What’s Really Going On

Gold has declined slightly, and based purely on recent price action, you would think that the bull run has come to an end. The metal reached highs of about $5,500 in earlier months but is currently trading around $4,700, which is certainly a drop and one that has investors wondering where it will go from here.

When looking at the overall picture, however, the gold price does not seem as fragile. Since the beginning of 2023, gold prices have had an impressive upward trajectory, and occasional pullbacks in price like these are normal behavior.

Why the Gold price is drifting lower

A big part of the current slowdown comes down to participation, especially in the futures market. Rob Kientz has pointed out that open interest on COMEX has dropped sharply. In simple terms, fewer traders are getting involved right now.

Open interest falling means positions are being closed without enough new ones coming in to replace them. That’s important because it shows the gold price isn’t being pushed down by aggressive sellers. It’s more about a lack of fresh buyers stepping in.

Volume is telling a similar story. During the run to all-time highs, activity was strong and consistent. Now it’s much quieter. That combination of lower open interest and lower volume usually points to a market taking a breather rather than one breaking down.

Gold is falling because open interest on the COMEX is low. Buyers staying away.

Market is high risk, only smart bidders are active in futures.

When full effects of inflation caused by Hormuz closure and oil shortages are felt, this will reverse.

Gold is building a quiet… pic.twitter.com/G64aPC4QLF

— Rob Kientz | The Freedom Report (@freedom_rpt) April 29, 2026

This could be a base, not a breakdown – inflation still unfolding

Even with the recent dip, the gold price still looks like it’s in a broader uptrend. A pullback of around 10–15% after a big rally is pretty normal.

Kientz believes this phase is more about consolidation than anything else. In his view, gold is quietly forming a base. It might not look exciting right now, but this kind of slow period often comes before a bigger move.

What stands out is that there’s no panic selling. The market isn’t rushing to dump positions. Instead, it feels more like traders are stepping back and waiting for a clearer signal before jumping in again.

One of the biggest drivers behind the bullish case for the gold price is inflation. Kientz thinks the market hasn’t fully reacted to what could be coming, especially with concerns around oil supply disruptions and geopolitical tension tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

If inflation starts to pick up more aggressively, gold tends to benefit. That’s when demand can return quickly, and the current quiet phase could flip into something much more active. At the moment, the market doesn’t seem fully convinced, which explains the lower participation. But that can change fast if inflation becomes the main focus again.

What could come next for gold

Right now, the gold price is in a waiting phase. It’s not collapsing, but it’s also not pushing higher with conviction. There are still some key levels to keep an eye on. The $4,000 to $4,200 range looks like an important support zone if the pullback continues. A move below $3,800 would start to raise more serious concerns.

Until then, this looks more like a pause inside a larger trend. The gold price has cooled, traders are more cautious, and activity has dropped. CoinCodex’s 1-month gold price forecast places the price at $4,212.82, which sits below the current level. That forecast sees gold sliding further into its pullback toward the $4,000–$4,200 support zone.

Source:: Gold Price Forecast: Gold Pulls Back, but Here's What's Really Going On