Key highlights:
- Gold failed to hold gains above $5,000 in quiet holiday trading, facing muted selling pressure.
- Major institutions including BNP Paribas and Wells Fargo see potential for gold to approach or exceed $6,000.
- CoinCodex’s algorithmic forecast projects gold reaching $6,000 within the next three months.
Gold is currently trading at around $4,975 as the precious metal continues to range around the $5,000 level. In the last week, the gold price reached as high as $5,110 and as low as $4,910.
The subdued market environment was largely attributed to holiday closures, with Chinese markets shut for Lunar New Year and U.S. markets closed for Presidents’ Day. Canada’s Toronto Stock Exchange is also offline for Ontario’s Family Day.
Despite the lack of strong directional moves, gold has experienced steady but modest selling pressure since its overnight highs, suggesting that traders are hesitant to initiate aggressive positions in thin liquidity conditions.
Institutional outlook remains constructive
While short-term trading has been muted, major financial institutions maintain a constructive outlook for gold.
According to BNP Paribas, the battle around the $5,000 mark is a critical juncture, but the broader trend remains intact. The bank’s commodity strategists consider it possible for gold to rise to $6,000 per ounce by the end of the year, citing persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical risks as key drivers.
BNP Paribas highlights two primary sources of structural demand that could stabilize and support higher prices: continued central bank purchases and inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The bank also expects the gold-to-silver ratio to shift further in favor of gold, arguing that the yellow metal serves as “risk protection” in a way that silver does not fully replicate. While silver tends to respond more strongly to short-term sentiment swings, gold’s role as a hedge against uncertainty could further reinforce its relative strength.
Wells Fargo has also significantly upgraded its outlook. The Wells Fargo Investment Institute recently raised its year-end 2026 gold price target to a range of $6,100 to $6,300 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4,500 to $4,700.
The bank cited the prospect of lower short-term interest rates and the need to hedge against policy surprises as major catalysts. According to Wells Fargo analysts, these factors could stimulate further central bank buying and strengthen demand tailwinds beyond prior expectations.
However, Wells Fargo also issued a note of caution. Central bank purchases reportedly slowed in 2025, while retail participation, particularly via ETFs, accelerated. Historically, retail-driven flows have included speculative capital that can react sharply to headlines. The analysts pointed to a 9% single-day drop in spot gold on January 30, 2026, triggered by news surrounding a nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, as an example of how quickly sentiment can reverse.
Gold price targets: $6,000 in focus
The $5,000 level is currently acting as both a psychological and technical battleground. A sustained break and hold above this threshold could open the path toward the next major milestone: $6,000 per ounce.
BNP Paribas sees $6,000 as achievable by the end of the year under supportive macro conditions, while Wells Fargo’s 2026 projection implies further upside into the $6,100–$6,300 range.
Adding to the bullish medium-term outlook, CoinCodex’s algorithmic gold price forecast is even more aggressive in the near term. The model currently projects that gold will reach the $6,000 milestone within the next three months. If realized, such a move would represent a significant acceleration relative to traditional bank forecasts.
That said, recent price action shows that upward momentum is not guaranteed. Gold’s inability to decisively hold above $5,000 highlights the presence of profit-taking and cautious positioning. Thin liquidity during holiday trading may have exaggerated short-term weakness, but the broader market remains sensitive to interest rate expectations, central bank activity, ETF flows, and geopolitical developments.
For now, the $5,000 level serves as a key pivot. A sustained breakout could reinforce institutional projections toward $6,000 and beyond, while failure to maintain support may increase the likelihood of volatility and periodic pullbacks before the next leg higher materializes.
Source:: Gold Price Forecast: Gold Hovers Around $5,000 as Analysts Eye $6,000 Milestone