Solana is trading near $84.12 after an extended sell-off that has pushed the token deep into a corrective phase. Price weakness has accelerated following a break below key support levels, shifting market structure lower and raising the risk of additional downside if bearish momentum persists.
Despite the technical damage, Solana’s network activity and institutional flows continue to show resilience, creating a growing divergence between short-term price action and longer-term adoption metrics.
Head and shoulders pattern confirms bearish reversal
Technical analysts have flagged a confirmed head and shoulders formation on Solana’s higher-time-frame chart. According to analyst Alex Clay, the pattern completed after price lost a major support zone that had previously acted as a base for multiple rebounds.
#SOL started to look bad😐
It turned into a confirmed H&S and important support zone is lost!
H&S target fits the key level of 42$🎯 See you there📉#Solana $SOL pic.twitter.com/WuyMrKgjs9
— Alex Clay (@cryptclay) February 4, 2026
The neckline break marks a structural shift from consolidation to reversal. Former support has now flipped into overhead resistance, limiting recovery attempts near the same level. Based on the measured move from the pattern, Clay points to $42 as a potential downside target if the bearish structure fully plays out.
Bounce zones emerge before potential continuation lower
Another analyst, CryptoUB, outlined a slightly different but still cautious roadmap. On a higher-time-frame Binance chart, CryptoUB identified a possible reaction zone in the low $100s, followed by renewed downside pressure toward the mid-$70s area.
Price has already lost the prior base that capped several rebounds throughout 2025. As a result, that zone now acts as resistance rather than support. At the same time, demand is mapped lower on the chart, aligning with historical reaction levels that previously attracted buyers.
The broader structure reflects a departure from Solana’s 2024 uptrend channel, with successive lower highs forming after the late-2025 peak. As long as price remains below reclaimed resistance, the technical bias remains tilted lower.
ETF inflows and DEX activity diverge from price action
While price trends have weakened, Solana’s underlying activity has remained comparatively strong. On Feb. 5, U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded $2.82 million in net inflows, moving against broader outflows seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum products.
Solana isn’t slowing down. Just this week, Solana processed $31 billion in total DEX spot volume!
No signs of stopping.
Price is irrelevant. pic.twitter.com/8bYyatKf3F
— Solana Sensei (@SolanaSensei) February 5, 2026
At the same time, Solana processed more than $31 billion in DEX spot volume over the past week, signaling sustained user engagement despite market volatility. This divergence suggests that traders are separating short-term price weakness from network usage and longer-term adoption trends.
CoinCodex model projects volatile recovery scenarios
CoinCodex’s Solana price prediction outlines a rebound scenario, though one marked by wide price swings rather than a smooth recovery. For February, the model places Solana in a broad range, with downside scenarios near $81.55 and upside paths extending above $105.
As the year progresses, CoinCodex projects higher average prices, with March and April forecasts moving into the $120–$135 range. Momentum remains uneven in later months, with projected pullbacks and renewed advances reflecting the model’s sensitivity to sentiment shifts and trend continuation.
These projections are scenario-based and do not imply expected outcomes, particularly given the current technical weakness and elevated volatility.
Despite near-term pressure, longer-term projections remain a subject of debate. Some analysts point to Solana’s prior cycle behavior, noting that the asset once traded near single-digit prices before staging a multi-year rally. Under sustained adoption and favorable macro conditions, long-term targets extending toward $1,000 by 2030 have been discussed, though such scenarios remain highly conditional.