Bitcoin Price Prediction: Whales Sell as $42,000 Support Emerges After Sharp BTC Crash

By Patrick Timely

 Bitcoin is trading near $67,200 after a steep sell-off that briefly pushed prices down to the $60,000 area earlier this week. The decline marks one of Bitcoin’s sharpest drawdowns since 2024, with heavy liquidations, rising macro pressure, and clear signs of distribution from large holders shaping near-term sentiment.

Despite the rebound from local lows, Bitcoin remains under pressure, with on-chain data and technical analysis pointing to further downside risk if broader capitulation unfolds.

Whales reduce exposure as retail buys the dip

On-chain data from Santiment shows a notable divergence in behavior between large and small Bitcoin holders. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, often referred to as “whales and sharks,” now control 68.04% of total supply, the lowest level since May 2025. According to Santiment, these wallets reduced holdings by roughly 81,068 BTC over the past eight days.

At the same time, wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC increased their share of supply to 0.249%, the highest level in roughly 20 months. The data suggests continued dip-buying by retail participants even as larger players scale back exposure.

Historically, Santiment notes that periods where large holders sell into retail buying have often aligned with bear-cycle conditions, particularly when broader market sentiment has yet to fully capitulate.

Bitcoin whales reduce holdings as small wallets accumulate. Source: Santiment

Liquidations and macro pressure deepen the sell-off

The decline in Bitcoin coincided with one of the largest liquidation events in recent years. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached approximately $1.45 billion, wiping out nearly 311,000 leveraged positions, with long positions accounting for the majority of forced closures.

Bitcoin futures open interest dropped sharply as leverage was flushed from the system, contributing to the slide below key technical levels. Daily momentum indicators moved into deeply oversold territory, reflecting capitulation conditions but also raising the possibility of short-term technical bounces.

The sell-off has not been isolated to crypto. U.S. equities also came under pressure, with roughly $1 trillion in stock market value erased, reinforcing a broader risk-off environment driven by a stronger U.S. dollar and hawkish expectations around Federal Reserve policy.

Peter Brandt flags $42,000 as major downside support

Veteran trader Peter Brandt added to the cautious outlook, pointing to $42,000 as a key support zone if Bitcoin’s decline deepens. In a recent analysis, Brandt described the current phase as a “banana peel” move, where price slides into the lower band of a long-term rising channel before stabilizing.

If Bitcoin $BTC digs into the Banana peel as deeply as in past bear market cycles, then the bulls should not need to suffer too far south of $42,000
We are a hop, skip and jump from there pic.twitter.com/1GPr7RnIPB

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) February 5, 2026

On a monthly timeframe, Brandt’s TradingView chart shows Bitcoin still trading within a broader upward structure, with prior cycle drawdowns historically dipping into the lower support band before recovering. Based on that framework, Brandt suggested that if Bitcoin follows earlier bear-market patterns, downside pressure could extend toward the low-$40,000 range before stronger demand emerges.

CoinCodex model projects uneven recovery into mid-2026

Model-based projections from CoinCodex outline a volatile recovery path rather than a straight-line rebound. For February, the model places Bitcoin in a broad range, with average prices near $72,600 and upside scenarios approaching $74,400 if selling pressure continues to ease.

As the year progresses, CoinCodex’s Bitcoin price prediction model shows gradual improvement. By April, average prices move toward the mid-$80,000 range, with potential highs near $87,000. Momentum strengthens further into mid-2026, with July projections showing average prices around $90,300 and upside scenarios reaching close to $92,500.

These projections remain scenario-based and highly sensitive to macro conditions, ETF flows, and sentiment shifts. CoinCodex does not frame these levels as expected outcomes, but as potential paths under stabilizing market conditions.

Despite signs of dip-buying and oversold conditions, risks remain skewed to the downside in the near term. Bitcoin continues to trade well below its recent highs, while ETF outflows, miner stress, and corporate balance-sheet pressure add to uncertainty.

Analysts caution that sustained recovery may require clearer signs of broader capitulation, particularly among retail participants, before a more durable bottom can form.

Source:: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Whales Sell as $42,000 Support Emerges After Sharp BTC Crash