Monero (XMR) Price Breaks Past Long-Held Resistance: What Comes Next?

By Afe Funbi

Key highlights:

  • Monero  just broke through a strong resistance level which had been holding back its advances for several years.
  • The way momentum and volume are building indicates this move is coming from long-term accumulation, not a quick speculative spike.
  • With the increased momentum and volume, it is clear that this price surge is not the result of some kind of market speculation.

After months of quietly moving sideways, Monero has stepped back into traders’ radar. The XMR price has ascended to levels that have not been reached since mid-2021, shattering a structure that has been containing it for years.

It is the context of the size of the candle that makes this move unusual and not just the size of the candle itself. This comes after a prolonged period of accumulation in a range or a base on the higher timeframes.

The push toward the $550 area marks a clear shift in how the market is treating Monero. For a long time, XMR traded like a forgotten asset, largely ignored during momentum-driven rallies and overlooked as capital rotated into newer narratives. 

That tone changed once price reclaimed and held above the mid-$400 range, a zone that had repeatedly rejected upside attempts in the past.

The XMR daily chart shows a clear expansion phase

Looking at the daily chart shared by Ardi, the XMR price action tells a very clean story. Throughout much of late 2024 and early 2025, price was consolidating in a relatively tight trading pattern that ranged from approximately $420 to $475.

Every test of the bottom of that range was greeted by buying interest, creating higher lows. After finally breaking out above the $474 to $480 range, it was only a matter of time before the reaction began.

The breakout was sharp, decisive, and impulsive. That matters, because strong breakouts tend to come after long periods of compression, and that’s exactly what played out here. 

After clearing resistance, the XMR price moved quickly, leaving very little overhead supply behind. That kind of behavior usually points to strength, not exhaustion, especially early in a new trend.

The bigger picture points to a saucer base

Zooming out to the higher timeframes makes the move even more compelling. On the monthly chart shared by Melarin, it seems that Monero has been building a saucer base for several years.

Since peaking near $500 in 2021, the price has been in a gradual downtrend, which has since flattened out into a sideways move. This type of rounded base often signals a major trend shift once price escapes the range.

What stands out now is how convincingly the XMR price has reclaimed the upper boundary of that structure. Monero is no longer stuck inside the base. It has pushed above it, opening the door for continuation rather than just a short-term relief rally. 

Historically, when assets break out of multi-year bases, price discovery tends to happen quickly as the market adjusts to a new valuation zone.

Monero Momentum builds on the 4-hour chart as traders take notice

On the lower timeframes, momentum supports what the higher charts are showing. On the 4-hour chart, a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows has occurred, marking a strong positive trend. The sudden rise from the lower $420s to $520s with little to no hesitation indicated a strong urge to buy.

Volume also expanded as price pushed higher, then cooled slightly once Monero began consolidating above prior resistance. That’s usually a healthy sign. Instead of snapping back into the old range, the XMR price has held its gains, which keeps the broader bullish structure intact.

Several traders have pointed out that Monero’s rally feels different from typical hype-driven moves. Unlike many assets that spike purely on narrative, Monero continues to benefit from real usage and a clearly defined role within the crypto ecosystem. That distinction becomes especially important during phases where capital starts rotating toward assets with proven demand.

The timing of the breakout also matters. Monero pushed higher while much of the market remains selective, which adds credibility to the move. It suggests this isn’t just a reactionary bounce, but a deeper repricing driven by structure, positioning, and renewed interest.

XMR price prediction: What comes next

From a technical standpoint, the most important level to watch now sits around the former breakout zone between $470 and $480. 

As long as the XMR price holds above this area on pullbacks, the bullish setup remains intact. A controlled retracement into that zone would not break the trend. In many cases, it would actually strengthen it by confirming new support.

On the upside, the next major psychological level sits near $600. This area lines up with historical price memory and acts as a natural target following the recent breakout. If momentum stays strong and broader market conditions remain supportive, a move toward $650 becomes a realistic scenario in the weeks ahead.

CoinCodex’s 1-month XMR price prediction has Monero sitting around $629.28. On the chart, though, everything really comes down to the $470–$480 area. 

That said, volatility is likely to increase after such a sharp rally. Short-term pullbacks should be expected. The key difference now is that dips are more likely to be viewed as opportunities rather than warning signs, as long as structure holds.

Final thoughts on Monero’s outlook

This move in Monero doesn’t look like a random spike. The charts show a clear transition from accumulation into expansion, supported by multi-timeframe structure and improving momentum. 

The XMR price has reclaimed levels that capped it for years, and that alone changes the broader technical narrative. At the current stage, the future prospects of XMR look good if it maintains above the previous resistance level and continues moving towards higher levels.

Whether this is the start of a healthy trend and not just a halt for a brief period of consolidation will be decided in the next pullback. But one thing is for sure: Monero is no longer a stealth coin, and according to charts, there is definitely something to be seen here.

Source:: Monero (XMR) Price Breaks Past Long-Held Resistance: What Comes Next?

Updated: January 12, 2026 at 3:14 pm
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