Key highlights:
- Why one major analyst says Bitcoin won’t revisit the $35K level
- The chart pattern that shows Bitcoin’s worst-case bottom
- A key technical indicator that has never been broken on monthly charts
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Bitcoin may be facing increased volatility, but one technical analyst argues that predictions of a sharp drop to $35,000 are unrealistic.
Crypto analyst Sykodelic told subscribers on X that such forecasts are “complete nonsense,” pointing to long-term indicators that historically limit downside risk.
BTC/USD 1-Month Chart. Source: Sykodelic via X
Using Bollinger Bands and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the monthly chart, he explained that Bitcoin has not shown the type of full-cycle expansion required for a 70–75% correction. Deep retracements of that magnitude occur only after extreme expansion, which has been absent in the current cycle.
Historical behavior suggests a higher Bitcoin floor
A drop to $35,000 would represent a 72% decline from the cycle peak. While Bitcoin has seen similar corrections, including the 77% plunge from $69,000 in 2021 to $15,500, Sykodelic argues that today’s structure is fundamentally different.
Bitcoin currently trades around $86,860, down 31% from its October high of $126,000, a correction size considered normal during bull markets.
One of the strongest signals comes from the monthly Bollinger Bands, where Bitcoin has never closed below the lower band. Sykodelic compared the present cycle to 2017, where even a severe correction failed to break that long-term support level.
Why $55,000 is the “worst-case” bottom
“Basically, absolute worse case scenario and if this is a big bad bear…if we close this monthly candle below the mid line then we could be expecting a maximum bottom of $55k,” the analyst said.
Bitcoin is holding above the midline of the monthly Bollinger Band, a level widely viewed as a key technical indicator for long-term momentum.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin hovered near $86,780, recovering from a brief dip below $83,000 the previous day. Analysts say the cryptocurrency now sits at a critical level that may determine the direction of its next major move.
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Source:: This Analyst Says Bitcoin Won’t See $35,000 Again and Explains Why