Tesla’s stock soared over 100% following Donald Trump’s reelection, largely fueled by the announcement of Elon Musk as a key advisor in the new administration. The electric vehicle giant, now the 8th most valuable company globally with a market capitalization of $1.43 trillion, remains a focal point for long-term investment discussions.
With the EV market still evolving, many wonder how Tesla will perform in the coming decades. Could it maintain its dominant position, or will increasing competition slow its growth?
In this article, we explore potential long-term price scenarios, including Tesla stock predictions for 2040 and 2050.
Key takeaways:
- Tesla’s market cap stands at $1.43 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies globally.
- Long-term predictions suggest Tesla stock could hit highs of $3,943 (S&P 500 growth rate) or potentially soar to $39,020 (QTEC growth rate) by 2050, though both seem quite unlikely.
- Short-term projections indicate an upturn, with the CoinCodex algorithm predicting TSLA at $627.35 by December, marking a 45.92% increase from the current price.
- Despite past challenges, Tesla’s stock rebounded in 2024 following Trump’s re-election, though its future success is contingent on sustaining market dominance amid growing competition.
Here’s an overview of Tesla stock’s price predictions under various relevant growth scenarios.
| 2026 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA stock forecast (5% annual growth) |
$465 |
$565 | $921 | $1,499 |
| TSLA stock forecast (10% annual growth) | $487 | $713 | $1,850 | $4,797 |
| TSLA stock forecast (S&P 500 historical 9.14% ROI)* | $483 | $686 | $1,644 | $3,943 |
| TSLA stock forecast (QTEC historical 19.62% ROI)** | $530 | $1,084 | $6,505 | $39,020 |
The values in the table were calculated using the TSLA stock price of $442.79 (as of September 25, 2025).
*The S&P 500 has averaged 9.14% CAGR over the past 50 years.
**NASDAQ’s tech-focused QTEC index has averaged 19.62% over the past 10 years.
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Tesla stock price prediction for 2040
Tesla stock’s average annual return for the past ten years has been around 16.67%. If this average annual return were to continue until 2040, Tesla stock would reach a price of $4,473. Needless to say, this figure seems impossible to achieve, as that would suggest Tesla would reach a market capitalization of $13.7 trillion, which is more than 4x larger than the current largest company in the world, Nvidia. Therefore, we need to use a more conservative benchmark to estimate Tesla’s stock price in 2040.
The S&P 500 index had an average annual return of 9.14% between 1975 and 2025. If Tesla stock were to grow at this average rate until 2040, TSLA stock would be worth $1,644 in 2040. This would be about 3x of the stock’s current all-time high price of $488.
Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100-Technology Sector index (QTEC) has displayed an average annual return of 19.62% over the last 10 years. If TSLA were to grow by 19.62% per year on average, Tesla stock would be worth $6,505. This would be nearly 15x the current Tesla stock price, which is not a realistic target, considering that this implies Tesla would reach a market cap of over $20 trillion.
Tesla stock price prediction for 2050
When it comes to the Tesla stock price forecast for 2050, Tesla stock would be trading at $3,943 in 2050 if it were to grow at the same 9.14% average rate as the S&P 500. This estimation is even more unlikely than the previous S&P 500 prediction, so take it with a grain of salt.
If TSLA were to grow at the same rate as QTEC, with a 19.62% average annual return, it would be worth $39,020 by 2050. Just for fun, that would propel Tesla to a market cap of over $125 trillion – that is $15 trillion more than the world’s total GDP, which is around $110 trillion. Needless to say, this figure is impossible to achieve for Tesla.
Tesla stock price prediction for 2025: Algorithm expects up-and-down movement
When it comes to more short-term predictions, the algorithmic Tesla price prediction from CoinCodex is currently forecasting TSLA to reach a new peak of $646 in Q4 2025, though the stock is expected to drop to $569 by mid-March. This would represent a 28.54% increase from the current price.
If we take a look at forecasts made by Wall Street analysts, the 1-year forecast for TSLA is quite bearish at the time of writing. Out of a sample of 45 analysts, the average target for TSLA stock is $336.18, which would represent a moderate decrease from the current price of $442.79. It should be said that most analysts predict that the stock will remain mostly neutral in the following years, but the average is brought down by a few incredibly bearish predictions.
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What’s next for Tesla?
In January 2023, Tesla announced price cuts to its vehicles in the United States and Europe. The company’s high-profit margins give it significant room to maneuver and potentially pressure its competitors by cutting prices further. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Tesla saw $9,000 in net profit per vehicle sold, which was more than seven times higher than the comparable figure for Toyota Motor Corp.
In the face of a potential recession, the company said in an earnings release that it was working towards “accelerating our cost reduction roadmap and driving towards higher production rates.” Tesla outperformed its competitors in 2023 mainly through cost control and cost innovation.
By the end of 2023, Tesla initially aimed to produce 2.2 million vehicles. According to the company’s own report, it fell short of that target, managing to produce “only” 1.81 million vehicles. Still, that was an impressive 35% year-over-year increase compared to 2022.
Of course, Tesla has also faced challenges in the recent past. The company’s shares declined substantially in the last quarter of 2022, and the stock’s 1-year performance is uninspiring -11.2% at the time of writing. In 2022, Elon Musk announced that the company would reduce its salaried headcount by 10%, which translated to about 10,000 employees at the time. There have also been reports of another wave of layoffs at Tesla in 2023.
Some of the factors that have contributed to the drop in Tesla’s valuation are increasing competition in the electric vehicle market, the uncertain macroeconomic outlook, and Elon Musk’s controversial acquisition of social media platform Twitter. Elon Musk’s $44 billion Twitter acquisition introduced concerns about whether Musk would be able to dedicate the same amount of focus to Tesla as he did before and also harmed Tesla’s brand image among some consumers.
Still, some of the concerns that led to the Tesla stock crash in 2022 appear to have been overblown. The stock has mounted an impressive recovery in 2023, as TSLA more than doubled in value. After going from $300 billion in July 2023 to as low as $140 billion in April 2024, Tesla started climbing up again steadily. This growth was further accelerated shortly after Trump’s re-election, as Tesla grew $100 per share just a few days following the announcement, and then by another $150 per share just a month later.
Whether that momentum can be sustained into the later parts of 2025 hinges on Tesla’s ability to maintain its dominant market share in the EV space, which is becoming increasingly difficult due to competition from Western automakers like Ford and Volkswagen, as well as Chinese companies like BYD and Nio.
The bottom line: Tesla’s long-term prospects appear to be solid
Tesla’s stock surged after Trump’s reelection, boosted by Elon Musk’s advisory role in the administration. While short-term projections suggest further gains, long-term estimates of $1,644 to $6,505 by 2040 seem overly optimistic.
The CoinCodex algorithm predicts TSLA at $569.18 by March 2026, a 28.54% increase from today. However, rising competition from Ford, Volkswagen, BYD, and Nio could challenge Tesla’s dominance, making its future growth uncertain. Overall, the company is likely to continue its success over the long term, and many investors believe Tesla will continue to dominate the EV market and find the TSLA stock a good buy at current prices.
If you’re interested in other stocks that could be good candidates for long-term holding, check out our list of the best dividend stocks.
Source:: Tesla Stock Price Prediction 2040, 2050: How High Can It Go?