Key highlights:
Traders on prediction market Kalshi are projecting that
Market sentiment has also changed. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 72, placing it in “greed” territory. Experts called this a sign that sentiment has strengthened without reaching extreme levels.
Source: alternative.me
Traders will be on the lookout for ETF flows in October and the upcoming U.S. economic data closely.
Glassnode says the rally still needs more trading volume
Not every expert is convinced the rally has strong footing yet. Glassnode highlighted in its weekly report that trading volume is still coming up short.
U.S. spot ETFs saw almost $1 billion on two other days in late September, with September 21 seeing the largest single-day inflow in nearly a year. Since then, inflows have shrunk day by day, falling all the way to $24 million by September 28.
Source: Glassnode
According to them, profit-taking overall has stayed light compared to previous market tops, with weekly net realized profit running closer to levels seen at the start of the 2023 uptrend rather than the bigger peaks of 2024 or 2025.
However, long-term holders have been taking a bigger share of the profits. Their realized profit nearly doubled in the week leading up to September 29 compared to the breakout week before, with their portion of total realized profit climbing from 34% to 55%.
Glassnode also pointed to a wall of sell orders between $85,000 and $85,500 on Binance’s spot order book, which has tripled in size since it showed on September 24. The coin broke that wall in the early hours of Friday, crossing above $86,000.BTC price chart
The main issue for Glassnode is trading volume. Total Bitcoin volume across spot exchanges and ETFs combined is averaging about $6.4 billion a day, which sits near the lower end of its range since Bitcoin ETFs first launched.
Ending in a positive tone, the firm said a sustained rise in volume, paired with price holding above the True Market Mean, would be a strong signal that Bitcoin has support behind it.
Source:: Bitcoin Could Hit $92,000 This Month, Kalshi Traders Say, as ETF Demand Grows