Key highlights:
- Bitcoin closed above its 365-day MA for the first time since March 2023
- CryptoQuant said this confirms the new bull market
- CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju projects this cycle to bring gains of 3x to 5x
Additionally, the firm’s Bull Score has stayed in bullish territory since mid-August and currently reads at 80. Readings above 60 have historically lined up with strong bull markets. The analysts also said this means on-chain data was turning positive before the price itself confirmed the trend.
Notably, CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator told a similar story. The indicator moved into an “Early Bull” phase in mid-August before advancing into a full “Bull” phase afterward.
Bitcoin bull market cycle indicator. Source: CryptoQuant
With all three signals pointing at the same thing, CryptoQuant said the case for a bull market is stronger than usual.
“When the Bull Score, the cycle indicator, and the 365-day MA all point the same way, the confirmation is far stronger than any single signal alone.”
Bitcoin has also pushed through a price zone of $76,000 and $81,000 that had built up heavy supply from long-term holders.
That zone has now been cleared, according to CryptoQuant, setting the next resistance point between $88,000 and $91,000. The firm had earlier shared in August that BTC had to break $83,000 to confirm the new bull run.
This bull run may be different from past cycles
CryptoQuant funder Ki Young Ju said that he expects this cycle to be different from the previous ones. Ju opined that gains this time could be between 3x and 5x the current levels, instead of the 10x seen in past runs.
I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.
When Bitcoin was smaller and retail dominated, hot money fueled explosive rallies and 80% crashes. Today, a much larger market and growing institutional… pic.twitter.com/KmUd32jq13
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) September 22, 2026
He pointed to growing institutional ownership as a stabilizing force, compared to the retail-driven “hot money” that boosted other past parabolic rallies and also sharp 80% crashes.
To back his case, Ju referenced on-chain data showing that BTC’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio never dropped below 1 during this cycle. In his words, “Some investors took losses, but holders as a whole never went underwater.”
He also noted that the PnL Index’s 365-day moving average is now showing a shift upward. Ju added that most long-term holders, or OG” whales, have stopped selling as traders in the futures market build up long positions near the recent bottom.
He was careful to note that a smaller rally doesn’t mean Bitcoin’s upside is capped. Instead, he framed it as a trade-off. Ju explained,
“None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed,” he said. Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, and that is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money.”
Meanwhile, capital inflows back the bullish case of the crypto coin. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $999 million in investment on Monday alone. It also added another $714.75 million in inflows on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue data, suggesting strong demand.
Bitcoin ETF daily inflows. Source: SoSoValue
Source:: CryptoQuant Says Bitcoin Bull Market Is Confirmed With 5x Gain Ahead