Key highlights:
- Bitcoin at $77,915 faces heavy supply at $77,100–$80,200, with $81,700 (365-day MA) as the bull market confirmation threshold per CryptoQuant
- Mixed signals: Fear & Greed at 66, buy/sell ratio at 1.12 (bullish), but negative Coinbase Premium signals weak U.S. institutional demand with derivatives dominating over spot
- Further resistance at $83,600 and $88,700; supports at ~$70,000 and $62,000–$65,000, while Fed hike odds at ~86.5% for Sept. 15-16 add macro headwinds
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Above that, $88,700 represents another potential area of selling pressure. The level corresponds with the upper band of CryptoQuant’s trader-realized price model, which tracks the average price paid by active traders.
Moreno said this upper band has historically been associated with profit-taking.
The downside levels are also clearly defined, as Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average sits around $70,000, while another on-chain support zone lies between $62,000 and $65,000.
CryptoQuant estimates that long-term holders accumulated roughly 476,000 BTC in that lower range during 2026.
Macro conditions could also influence whether Bitcoin can clear the resistance. Friday’s US inflation report showed consumer prices rising 0.4% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier, in line with expectations.
Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% forecast, although the annual core rate eased to 2.4%.
Source: CME FedWatch tool
The data increased expectations for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting, with CME FedWatch putting the probability at about 86.5% on Friday.
Higher-rate expectations can affect liquidity and investor appetite for risk assets, adding another variable to Bitcoin’s attempt to break higher.
Source:: Bull Market Confirmed if Bitcoin Breaks $81,700, CryptoQuant Says